For the third time in a row. For the fifth time in six years. Manchester City have been announced winners of the Premier League. Thanks to Arsenal dropping points in the last few games of the season, Manchester City were able to rise to the top spot, winning the Premier League with five points to spare. However, because of City’s now long-term winning streak, one would question if the Premier League is even a competition anymore, with one team in constant domination. It would seem that the Premier League is dominated by the same six teams each year, with little variation in teams that qualify for the Champions League and teams that get relegated.
The ‘big six’ clubs in the Premier League include Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and of course Manchester City. Since the year 1996, the only team not included in the big six to win the Premier League is Leicester City, in the 2015/16 season. Other than that, there have been 26 years of the same teams commanding the top four spots. When these teams remain in the highest rankings, this allows them to qualify for European competitions such as the Champions League and the Europa League. This allows those clubs to bring in more money for things like upgraded training facilities, better staff, and most importantly, better players.
In the Premier League, it has been observed that many players are being purchased from other leagues for absurd prices - prices that clubs outside of the big six would not be able to afford. This season’s most pivotal players such as Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Marcus Rashford, all have market values of over €70 million, with golden-boot winner Erling Haaland worth €170 million. This makes it impossible for smaller clubs to get their hands on these spectacular types of players, decreasing the quality of these teams and therefore decreasing their likelihood of winning within in the league.
In a table on Transfermarkt.com, the total market value (how much each player is worth) of each club is compared to their final position on the Premier League table. Positions 1-6 for highest value are filled with, you guessed it, the big six. This season three of these clubs qualified for Champions League, while Liverpool qualified for Europa league, and Tottenham and Chelsea disappointed. Each of these clubs have a market value of over €680 million, notably Manchester City and Chelsea, who both have market values of over €1 billion. All while relegation clubs such as Leicester, Leeds and Southampton are valued at €445 million or less. With an over €200 million gap in total market value between the cheapest club of the big six and the most expensive of the relegation teams, it's no surprise that some teams are coming out on top while others are falling to EFL Championship football next season.
However, this could easily be compared to Europe’s other top leagues, specifically Germany’s Bundesliga and Italy’s Serie A. For the past 10 consecutive seasons of the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich have won the title. In this time period, they have also won the German Super Cup seven times, the Champions League twice, and the FIFA Club World Cup twice. Meanwhile, their main competition, Borussia Dortmund, have only won two German Cups and three German Super Cups in this same time period. The more that Bayern Munich win, the more money they receive, the better players that they can purchase, the more titles that they win. It’s a seemingly endless cycle, and is proven by the club’s current total market value: €979.70 million, which is more than €430 million more than any other club in the same league. So, it wouldn’t be of surprise to anyone if Bayern continued to win the league, again and again and again and again.
It was no different in Serie A. For every season between 2011 and 2020, Juventus came out on top. Juventus have a similar history to Bayern Munich, in that during their 9-season winning streak of the league, they also managed to secure five Italian Cups, five Italian Super Cups, and a place in the Champions League final twice. The only other clubs that really won anything before or after Juventus’ winning period were AC and Inter Milan, as well as just recently, SSC Napoli. But this just proves again, that the competition in this league was clearly lacking throughout Juventus’ nine year streak at the top of the Serie A table.
Manchester City, however, haven’t really had much of a winning streak compared to Bayern and Juventus. With seven Premier League wins since 2011, it hasn’t been a total domination. In fact, in the seasons between 2011 and 2023, four other clubs have won the league, including Liverpool (20/21 season), Chelsea (16/17 and 14/15), Leicester (15/16) and Manchester United (12/13). City also haven’t really dominated the other aspects of English and European football either during their winning period, with only one FA Cup, three English Supercups, and still no Champions League title. So in this respect, is Manchester City really reducing competition in the Premier League in the way that we all think?
When you look at the games from this Premier League Season, you can see that any team can win on any different day. Southampton, the first team to get relegated this season, managed to draw with Arsenal, who held the top of the table for most of the season, in both encounters this season. Underdogs Newcastle beat Tottenham 6-1, helping Newcastle on their mission to secure a Champions League spot. Brighton, who only got promoted to the Premier League in the 2016/17 season, managed to beat many top clubs this year including Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. And finally, Brentford, who also got promoted to the Premier League just recently (the 20/21 season) were one team that managed to beat champions Manchester City in both encounters. So how would this not confirm the Premier League’s competitiveness? Any team can win on any day, and as we have seen with Newcastle, even once relegation-bound teams can qualify for the Champions League over teams in the big six if they try hard enough.
In reality, nobody knows what next season holds, as Manchester City are not, and never will be, guaranteed to win. We saw Arsenal sit at the top of the table for 248 days, and everyone thought that the trophy was in their hands until the last few games of the season. We could see the same thing with City next year, or they might fall completely short of any spots in European competitions like we saw with Tottenham and Chelsea this season, who finished 8th and 12th respectively. In my opinion, I think that the Premier League is unpredictable, so it will be exciting to see who comes out on top in the 23/24 season.
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